[Jim Price]

THE PROGNOSTICATING PROFESSOR

As far as sports goes, we are about to enter one of my favorite times of the year…College Bowl Season! The cream of the 2005 college football crop slugs it out for school pride, glory, and for one team, the coveted National Championship.

I usually post this at my workplace, but decided to share it with the Rockpage community this year…my prognostications for this year’s college bowl game slate. Disclaimer: Yours truly and Rockpage accept no responsibility for wages, life savings, or children’s trust funds lost due to wagering based on these predictions.

I will update this posting with final scores as the games are played, and keep track of how well or badly I do.

My college bowl picks:

Dec. 20 – The New Orleans Bowl, Lafayette, LA: Southern Mississippi (6-5) vs. Arkansas State (6-5)

This one should be retitled the Who Cares Bowl. Although I am a fan of college football, I concede that there are too many college bowl games. This one is proof. Teams that finish 6-5 don’t belong in bowl games. This battle will decide who the better mediocre team is; the team that stinks up the joint least wins. Arkansas State is making their first ever Division 1 bowl appearance, while Southern Miss has had some bowl experience. Even though Southern Miss has had a mediocre year, I think they still have more weapons, and will prevail.

JP’s pick: Southern Mississippi 31-14

FINAL SCORE: Southern Mississippi 31-19 (JP is 1-0)

Dec. 21 – GMAC Bowl, Mobile, AL: UTEP (8-3) vs. Toledo (8-3)

Both of these teams will try to rebound from disappointing regular season finishes; UTEP lost its last two games, while Toledo missed going to the MAC Championship game. Both teams have productive quarterbacks and offenses, but suspect defenses. On paper, Toledo’s offense would appear to have a slight edge; but I think UTEP coach Mike Price – playing in Alabama, where he probably still has a bitter taste in his mouth after the Crimson Tide fired him – will have his team ready to go and will want to use this game to make a statement.

JP’s pick: UTEP 35-24

FINAL SCORE: Toledo 45-13 (JP is 1-1)

Dec. 22 – Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas, NV: BYU (6-5) vs. California (7-4)

Another Who Cares Bowl…A mediocre BYU team taking on a slightly less mediocre California Golden Bears team. BYU played better as the season progressed, while Cal faltered in the later part of their season. But BYU’s strength is its passing game, while Cal’s strength is its pass rush. Cal faced a tougher schedule, and in their four losses, the only team that really dominated them was USC. I think the Bears will be better battle-ready for this one, and I predict they’ll win.

JP’s pick: California 37-21

FINAL SCORE: California 35-28 (JP is 2-1)

Dec. 22 – San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego, CA: Colorado State (6-5) vs. Navy (7-4)

Colorado State has a strong passing game, while Navy has a strong running game. If Colorado State doesn’t turn the ball over, they can score points. But I think Navy’s rushing attack will have an easier time with the Rams’ porous defense than Colorado State’s pass attack will have against the Midshipmen. Navy looked dominant in their last game against Army; I think they have the edge.

JP’s pick: Navy 28-21

FINAL SCORE: Navy 51-30 (JP is 3-1)

Dec. 23 – Fort Worth Bowl, Fort Worth, TX: Kansas (6-5) vs. Houston (6-5)

Yawn. Why does this bowl exist, and why are these two teams in it? Houston’s strength has been their offense, while Kansas’ has been defense. If Kansas can get their offense on track, Houston will be in trouble. I don’t see Houston’s defense being able to dominate Kansas’ offense the way some of the Jayhawks’ Big 12 opponents did.

JP’s pick: Kansas 31-10

FINAL SCORE: Kansas 42-13 (JP is 4-1)

Dec. 24 – Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, HI: Nevada (8-3) vs. UCF (8-4)

This is Central Florida’s first-ever bowl appearance, and caps a season where the Golden Knights turned things around from an 0-11 season the year before. To me it looks like a pretty even matchup, but Central Florida seems to have stronger weapons on offense. I think this will be a close game, but I think coach George O’Leary and Central Florida have more incentive to finish their turnaround.

JP’s pick: UCF 38-31

FINAL SCORE: Nevada 49-48 (OT) (JP is 4-2)

Dec. 26 – Motor City Bowl, Detroit, MI: Memphis State (6-5) vs. Akron (7-5)

Yawn. Again, a bowl game to determine who is the less mediocre…The key to this game will be Memphis State’s DeAngelo Williams, rushing in his final college game before heading to the NFL. I don’t think the Zips’ defense will be able to keep him out of the end zone; thus I predict the Zips’ first ever bowl appearance will not be a memorable one.

JP’s pick: Memphis State 27-13

FINAL SCORE: Memphis State 38-31 (JP is 5-2)

Dec. 27 – Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando, FL: Clemson (7-4) vs. Colorado (7-5)

This game could be a bloodbath. Colorado lost its last three games by a combined score of 130-22, and coach Gary Barnett is now in the unemployment line. Clemson is better than their record indicates; three of their losses were close decisions against ranked teams. The Tigers will slaughter the Buffaloes…

JP’s pick: Clemson 48-7

FINAL SCORE: Clemson 19-10 (JP is 6-2)

Dec. 27 – Insight Bowl, Phoenix, AZ: Arizona State (6-5) vs. Rutgers (7-4)

Rutgers is in their first bowl game since 1978. Arizona State will have the home state support. Both teams have explosive and speedy offenses; but both are also prone to turnovers. I think the home crowd and their tougher schedule against PAC-10 opposition will give the Sun Devils the edge here. I predict an offensive shootout.

JP’s pick: Arizona State 47-31

FINAL SCORE: Arizona State 45-40 (JP is 7-2)

Dec. 28 – MPC Computers Bowl, Boise, ID: Boise State (9-3) vs. Boston College (8-3)

Boston College has faced the tougher schedule, but Boise State has won 31 games in a row at their home field, the blue field at Bronco Stadium in Boise. Both teams have balanced offenses; I give Boston College the edge on defense. Still, I think Boise State has the capability of mixing up their offensive looks, and will challenge the Eagles’ defense to keep up. Plus, Boise State is still looking for respectability, and will give the Eagles all they can handle.

JP’s pick: Boise State 38-33

FINAL SCORE: Boston College 27-21 (JP is 7-3)

Dec. 28 – MasterCard Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, TX: Michigan (7-4) vs. Nebraska (7-4)

As a Penn State fan, I can say that Michigan was one second away from finishing 6-5. But I shall not bitch about Lloyd Carr’s game-winning plea to get two seconds put back on the clock; the truth is, Michigan battled to 7-4 against a tough schedule, with all four of their losses close games against other bowl-bound teams. Nebraska floundered its way to a 7-4 mark against a mediocre schedule. Nebraska hasn’t been consistent in executing Bill Callahan’s offensive schemes, either. I think Michigan has more and better weapons on both sides of the ball, and will be clearly superior here.

JP’s pick: Michigan 41-17

FINAL SCORE: Nebraska 32-28 (JP is 7-4)

Dec. 29 – Emerald Bowl, San Francisco, CA: Georgia Tech (7-4) vs. Utah (6-5)

Utah fell back down to earth following their undefeated dream season last year. Georgia Tech has been tough but inconsistent. Still, I think Utah will be hard-pressed to put points up against Tech’s stingy defense, and although erratic, Georgia Tech’s offense will still have an easier time scoring against the Utes’ defense.

JP’s pick: Georgia Tech 24-10

FINAL SCORE: Utah 38-10 (JP is 7-5)

Dec. 29 – Pacific Life Holiday Bowl, San Diego, CA: Oregon (10-1) vs. Oklahoma (7-4)

This year’s recipient of the BCS shaft: Does Oregon go into this game pissed off and with fire in their eyes, or do they go in the tank like the Cal Bears did last year when they received the BCS shaft? It has been an off year for Oklahoma, but they still have dangerous Adrian Peterson. Still, Oklahoma’s defense isn’t as dominant this year, and I think the Ducks’ offense will torch it – if the Ducks aren’t suffering a BCS hangover.

JP’s pick: Oregon 30-17

FINAL SCORE: Oklahoma 17-14 (JP is 7-6)

Dec. 30 – Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl, Nashville, TN: Minnesota (7-4) vs. Virginia (6-5)

Both of these teams have been frustrating to watch. When either was good, they were great; when either was bad, they sucked. I think that Minnesota was the stronger and more consistent on both sides of the ball. I think the Gophers have a more potent offense and stingier defense, and should take care of business here.

JP’s pick: Minnesota 28-17

FINAL SCORE: Virginia 34-31 (JP is 7-7)

Dec. 30 – Vitalis Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX: Northwestern (7-4) vs. UCLA (9-2)

This one could be a shootout. Both Northwestern and UCLA can put points on the board, but their defenses are suspect. But I think Northwestern’s defense is better than UCLA’s, and the Wildcats’ wins have been more convincing and solid efforts than UCLA’s come-from-behind thrillers. This should be an exciting game to watch, but I give the edge to Northwestern.

JP’s pick: Northwestern 48-44

FINAL SCORE: UCLA 50-38 (JP is 7-8)

Dec. 30 – Independence Bowl, Shreveport, LA: South Carolina (7-4) vs. Missouri (6-5)

Steve Spurrier gets South Carolina back into a bowl game in his first season coaching the Gamecocks. The Gamecocks have improved on defense since the beginning of the season, and have faced a tougher schedule in the SEC than erratic Missouri has in the Big 12. I think the Gamecocks are playing more consistently under Spurrier, and should be able to take this one.

JP’s pick: South Carolina 23-14

FINAL SCORE: Missouri 38-31 (JP is 7-9)

Dec. 30 – Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Atlanta, GA: Miami (9-2) vs. LSU (10-2)

Both of these teams are similar. Both have tough defenses, and can put points on the board. But both teams choked down the stretch, losing big games that would have put them in the BCS picture. I think this will be a tight game; I think one big play decides it in favor of LSU.

JP’s pick: LSU 20-14

FINAL SCORE: LSU 40-3 (JP is 8-9)

Dec. 31 – Meineke Car Care Bowl, Charlotte, NC: North Carolina State (6-5) vs. South Florida (6-5)

Another Mediocrity Bowl. South Florida has looked good at times this year, with wins over Louisville and Rutgers; but they’ve lost their last two. North Carolina State has battled against a tough schedule, and beat Georgia Tech and Florida State. South Florida is looking to gain respectability, and I think they have more incentive to win here.

JP’s pick: South Florida 23-20

FINAL SCORE: North Carolina State 14-0 (JP is 8-10)

Dec. 31 – AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Memphis, TN: Fresno State (8-4) vs. Tulsa (8-4)

Both teams have the potential to put points on the board. Fresno State has shown the stronger defense during the season, but have been on a 3-game losing tailspin that began with their heartbreaking loss to USC. Tulsa has won their last three; and I think they have the momentum going in.

JP’s pick: Tulsa 31-19

FINAL SCORE: Tulsa 31-24 (JP is 9-10)

Dec. 31 – EV1.net Houston Bowl, Houston, TX: TCU (10-1) vs. Iowa State (7-4)

Iowa State battled to a 7-4 record against a respectable schedule, and was competitive in their four losses. TCU achieved their 10-1 mark against a softer Mountain West schedule. Still, I think TCU has a more explosive offense and more big play threats. And they will be looking for respect and have something to prove.

JP’s pick: TCU 27-24

FINAL SCORE: TCU 27-24 (JP is 10-10)

Jan. 2 – AT&T Cotton Bowl, Dallas, TX: Texas Tech (9-2) vs. Alabama (9-2)

This should be an interesting matchup between an explosive offense and a smothering defense. Texas Tech has the offense, and Alabama has the defense. I ultimately think it will be tougher for Alabama to totally shut down the Red Raiders’ offense than it will be for the Red Raiders’ defense to shut down the Crimson Tide’s offense.

JP’s pick: Texas Tech 24-13

FINAL SCORE: Alabama 13-10 (JP is 10-11)

Jan. 2 – Outback Bowl, Tampa, FL: Iowa (7-4) vs. Florida (8-3)

This could amount to a pretty good slugfest between two teams with potentially explosive offenses, good defenses…and the potential to make mistakes. I think Iowa quarterback Drew Tate is the stronger quarterback at this point, plus I think the Hawkeye defense will get after Gators quarterback Chris Leak and force some mistakes. I think the Hawkeyes will be looking to finish on a strong note to set the tone for next season.

JP’s pick: Iowa 23-17

FINAL SCORE: Florida 31-24 (JP is 10-12)

Jan. 2 – Toyota Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, FL: Louisville (9-2) vs. Virginia Tech (10-2)

Even though they choked in the ACC Championship Game vs. Florida State, I still think Virginia Tech is one of the most explosive teams in the country, and they’ll have a chip on their shoulder heading into this game. Louisville is looking to earn some respect for the Big East, but will be doing so without their starting quarterback. If both teams were at full strength, I could see this one being close, but without a key component of their offense, Louisville probably won’t be able to keep up with Marcus Vick and co.

JP’s pick: Virginia Tech 37-17

FINAL SCORE: Virginia Tech 35-24 (JP is 11-12)

Jan. 2 – Capitol One Bowl, Orlando, FL: Wisconsin (9-3) vs. Auburn (9-2)

This will be coach Barry Alvarez’s swan song on the sidelines for Wisconsin. I don’t think it will end happily for him. I don’t think Wisconsin’s defense will be able to stop Auburn’s powerful and balanced offense. If the Badgers themselves can put points on the board, it could be an interesting game, but I think Auburn is the stronger team.

JP’s pick: Auburn 27-13

FINAL SCORE: Wisconsin 24-10 (JP is 11-13)

Jan. 2 – Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Tempe, AZ: Notre Dame (9-2) vs. Ohio State (9-2)

This should be a good slobberknocker. Ohio State with their stiff defense takes on a resurgent Notre Dame program under new coach Charlie Weiss. Both teams can put up points. Ohio State would appear to have the stronger defense. I see this one being close all the way; my gut feeling is that Charlie Weiss will have the Irish hellbent on proving that they are indeed back and do belong in the BCS; and that Brady Quinn and Notre Dame will figure out a way to win it late.

JP’s pick: Notre Dame 17-13

FINAL SCORE: Ohio State 34-20 (JP is 11-14)

Jan. 2 – Nokia Sugar Bowl, Atlanta, GA: Georgia (10-2) vs. West Virginia (10-1)

West Virginia’s young team has gelled together well, winning the Big Least Conference. Georgia also exceeded expectations to win the SEC title; who knows what the Dawgs would have accomplished had quarterback D.J. Shockley not injured his knee in midseason? Based on how Georgia dismantled LSU in the SEC Championship Game, I think the Mountaineers will have their hands full.

JP’s pick: Georgia 27-17

FINAL SCORE: West Virginia 38-35 (JP is 11-15)

Jan. 3 – FedEx Orange Bowl, Miami, FL: Penn State (10-1) vs. Florida State (8-4)

The talk is all about the meeting of the coaching legends: Joe Paterno vs. Bobby Bowden, in what may be the last time we get to see these two face each other. But on the field, I think Penn State will take care of business. I think Florida State’s defense will have less success containing Michael Robinson and the Nittany Lions’ offensive weapons (Derrick Williams might even be back) than they did against Virginia Tech’s Marcus Vick. And I think the Lions’ veteran defense will figure out ways to flush Seminoles quarterback Drew Weatherford and force some turnovers. This should be the exclamation point at the end of Penn State’s turnaround season.

JP’s pick: Penn State 28-17

FINAL SCORE: Penn State 26-23 (3-OT) (JP is 12-15)

Jan. 4 – The Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi, Pasadena, CA: Texas (12-0) vs. USC (12-0)

USC can achieve college football immortality with a win, becoming the first team ever to win three national championships in a row. Texas can achieve their own immortality by being the team that stops USC and wins their first championship in ages. USC has Matt Leinert, Heisman winner Reggie Bush and LenDale White; Texas has Vince Young. This could well be a shootout, with the last team with the ball winning. But I don’t think USC’s defense has seen a quarterback like Vince Young this season, and I don’t think Texas will lay down the way Oklahoma did last year. In fact, I think Texas is hungrier, and after years of frustration from having good teams knocked out of national title contention in either the Red River Shootout or the Big 12 Championship game, Mack Brown and the Longhorns will be looking to finish. I think Texas’ desire to win their first championship in years will ultimately win out over USC’s desire to three-peat.

JP’s pick: Texas 30-28

FINAL SCORE: Texas 41-38 (JP's final bowl pick record is 13-15)
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